Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
